Illustration risk and what AG 49-A actually does
An IUL illustration is a spreadsheet, not a forecast. Before 2015 carriers competed on who could show the biggest number, using long historical lookbacks and loan arbitrage assumptions that were arithmetically possible and practically absurd. Regulators responded with Actuarial Guideline XLIX. The NAIC records the sequence: AG 49 in 2015, superseded by AG 49-A for policies sold on or after December 14, 2020, revisions effective in 2023 to tighten illustration limits, and further revisions effective in 2026 to enhance consumer protection disclosures.
The guideline itself is more specific than most agents will volunteer. It defines a Benchmark Index Account with a fixed set of features: crediting based only on the one-year point-to-point change in the S&P 500, an annual cap, a 0% annual floor, a 100% participation rate, interest credited once a year, and explicitly no enhancements that provide additional indexed credits, including experience refunds, multipliers or bonuses. The annual rate of indexed credits illustrated for that account may not exceed the lesser of two things: the arithmetic mean of geometric average annual credited rates across the required 25-year historical periods, or 145% of the carrier's Annual Net Investment Earnings Rate.
The 2025 revisions, adopted by the NAIC's Life Actuarial Task Force and Committee on November 13, 2025 and by Executive Committee and Plenary on December 11, 2025, add further illustration requirements in Sections 7.B through 7.D for policies sold on or after April 1, 2026, with optional early compliance from January 1, 2026. Practically, that means the IUL illustration you are handed in late 2026 is subject to tighter disclosure rules than the one your neighbor was shown in 2019.
What the rules do not do. AG 49-A caps how optimistic an illustration may look. It does not guarantee any credited rate, prevent a carrier from lowering caps after issue, prevent cost of insurance increases up to the guaranteed maximum, or make the illustrated column likely. Ask for three columns: guaranteed, illustrated, and illustrated minus two percentage points. If the plan only survives in the middle column, it is not a plan.
| Question to ask | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Show me the guaranteed column to age 95. | Reveals when the policy lapses on guaranteed charges and minimum crediting. Many IULs lapse in their 70s on that basis. |
| What is the minimum guaranteed cap and participation rate? | That, not the current 8-9% cap, is your contractual floor on upside. |
| What are the guaranteed maximum cost of insurance rates? | Sets the worst case the carrier may charge you later, as Wisconsin OCI warns. |
| Does the illustration assume loan arbitrage? | Positive spread between credited rate and loan charge is a common and fragile assumption. |
| What is the surrender charge schedule, year by year? | Determines what an early exit costs, often 8-15% of value in the first years. |
| Will you send an in-force illustration every year? | Annual monitoring is the only way to catch underfunding while it is still fixable. |
Who IUL actually fits, and who should walk away
IUL can be the right answer for a specific person. That person usually looks like this: high, stable income; 401(k) and backdoor Roth already maxed; a permanent death benefit need such as estate liquidity, a business buy-sell or a special-needs dependent; willingness to fund the policy heavily for at least 10 years; comfort with illiquidity in the early years; and an advisor who will review an in-force illustration annually. For that buyer, tax-deferred accumulation plus a tax-free death benefit plus indexed crediting is a coherent complement to a portfolio.
Walk away if any of these are true
- You need the death benefit only for 15 to 25 years. Buy level term and invest the difference. It is not a cliche, it is arithmetic.
- You are being sold IUL as a Roth IRA replacement. Qualified plans, employer match and index funds cost a fraction of the internal charges. A cost of insurance charge is not an investment expense you should volunteer for.
- You cannot commit to the target premium for a decade. Flexible premium means the carrier tolerates skipped payments, not that skipping is harmless. Underfunding is the leading cause of lapse.
- The illustration relies on a multiplier, bonus or loan arbitrage. AG 49-A excluded exactly these features from the benchmark account for a reason.
- You would need the cash value within 10 years. Surrender charges plus front-loaded expenses make early exit expensive, and a lapse with an outstanding loan can create taxable income with no cash to pay it.
- Nobody has shown you the guaranteed column. Then nobody has shown you the product.
The lapse problem, in data
The 2015-2021 Universal Life Insurance Lapse Rate Experience Study from the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and LIMRA covers 24 companies, 33.5 million policy exposures, $8.5 trillion of face amount and 1.3 million lapse terminations. Its finding on this product is pointed: indexed universal life lapse rates increased significantly across all policy years between the earlier part of the study period and the later part, and IUL was the only product type to show consistently higher lapse rates during the pandemic than before it. A lapsed permanent policy pays nothing, having charged you cost of insurance for years.
If you already own an IUL
Do not surrender it on impulse. Request an in-force illustration at current assumptions and at guaranteed assumptions, check whether the policy is on track to the age you intended, and consider the fixes in order of cost: increase premium, reduce the face amount to lower cost of insurance, repay or restructure loans, use a 1035 exchange into a guaranteed universal life or a paid-up whole life design, or reduce paid-up. Surrendering with a gain above basis creates taxable income, and surrendering with an outstanding loan can create a large phantom gain. Talk to a tax professional first.
Availability, crediting strategies, loan provisions and free-look periods differ by state filing, so confirm the specifics for your state before you sign an application.
Sources & further reading
- NAIC — Actuarial Guideline XLIX-A, full text as adopted
- NAIC — Life Insurance Illustrations topic overview
- Wisconsin OCI — Consumer alert on universal life insurance and cost of insurance increases
- SOA Research Institute and LIMRA — 2015-2021 Universal Life Insurance Lapse Rate Experience Study
- Mutual of Omaha — Indexed UL historical crediting rates and definitions
- Current IUL cap rate survey, 2026